ADDRESSING THE CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE GREATER EVERGLADES LANDSCAPE

Addressing the Challenges of Climate Change in the Greater Everglades Landscape is a research initiative funded by the USFWS and the USGS and carried out by the MIT-USGS Science Impact Collaborative at the Department of Urban Studies and Planning of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).


Brief Project Description

The project is an applied research effort that aims to investigate some of the most important challenges that climate change poses for conservation planning in the Greater Everglades ecosystem. In addition to biophysical stressors like sea level rise, it incorporates several other factors, including changes in economics, hydrology, land use planning, development, and population, thereby providing a broader understanding of the relationship between climate change and landscape change on which to build a long-term regional conservation strategy.

The project has two primary approaches: 1) Stakeholder-based participatory planning: by incorporating input from a wide range of collaborators from different sectors, the MIT team aims to tailor the output to the specific needs of the clients as well as to enhance its understanding of plausible climate change responses within the region. 2) Scenario-based simulation modeling: recognizing the irreducible uncertainty inherent in climate change projections, MIT proposes a methodology in which scenarios are employed as tools for collaboration and exploration among interested parties. It is our goal to co-develop a number of exploratory scenarios for the future of the region (e.g., 2020, 2040 2060). Once these scenarios are generated, MIT will construct a series of simulation models to create future land use maps and visualizations (we call these geographically explicit outputs “Alternative Futures”). Subsequently, MIT will coordinate the evaluation of each Alternative Future with local stakeholders. These Alternative Futures and the process of scenario generation will facilitate the institutions and agencies to undertake proactive approaches to conservation, water management, and land use planning. It will also allow these agencies to learn about the cumulative impacts of the possible range of decision options and biophysical conditions across sectors.

The goal of this project is not to attempt to “predict” future conditions, but rather to specify a plausible range of conditions, which should be considered for planning purposes. Therefore, scenarios and their alternative futures should be seen by our collaborators and their institutions as tools for learning and awareness of plausible futures, ultimately aiming to make better-informed decisions today.